{"id":973,"date":"2022-06-24T23:30:31","date_gmt":"2022-06-25T03:30:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/?p=973"},"modified":"2023-05-06T16:41:41","modified_gmt":"2023-05-06T20:41:41","slug":"money-and-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/?p=973","title":{"rendered":"Money and Inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>By all measures, June is the \u2018summer\u2019 month.\u00a0 By popular rendering, June is the first month of summer following hard on the heels of the common entry into that season with the passing of Memorial Day.\u00a0 By official rendering, June is also the official, astronomical start of the summer given that it contains the summer solstice when the day is as long as long can be. \u00a0And, by all measures, Americans are going to be paying more for their summer fun especially if that fun centers around food or driving anywhere or doing anything.\u00a0 About the only thing that is cheap right now is talk so we\u2019ll expend some of that tracing the roots of the current price hikes we all see.<\/p>\n<p>System inflation was already rearing its ugly head back in September 2021 and at that time this column discussed the very real possibility that what was labeled as \u2018transitory\u2019 might be here for some time in post entitled <a href=\"https:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/?p=902\">Stagflation and the Phillips Curve<\/a>.\u00a0 Sadly, here it is nearly a year later and inflation has nestled into the American economic land scape for the long haul.\u00a0 The question is why?<\/p>\n<p>Contrary to some popular opinions, the core answer is not to be found in gasoline prices \u2013 they are merely a symptom.\u00a0 Localized shortages, likes those experienced with the <a href=\"https:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/?p=878\">Colonial Pipeline shutdown<\/a>, can drive prices up for a period of time but they can\u2019t effect every sector in the economy.\u00a0 But we don\u2019t have shortages of gasoline, we have a <a href=\"https:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/?p=942\">systemic rise in the price of gas nationwide that is not due to \u2018the rapacious greed\u2019 of oil companies<\/a>.\u00a0 And, given that the price of gasoline figures into the cost of most everything else, higher transportation costs do get passed onto the consumer and so rising gas prices do have a compounding effect, even if they are not the root cause.<\/p>\n<p>The other popular answer that inflation is a direct result of government spending hits closer to the mark but doesn\u2019t quite get there either.\u00a0 Fox Business showed a graphic very similar to the one shown below marking the steps of inflation over the last 15 months in attempt to indict the Biden administration\u2019s \u2018reckless spending\u2019 as the culprit of high inflation.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/CC_06Jun_inflation_summary.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-975\" src=\"https:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/CC_06Jun_inflation_summary.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"857\" height=\"297\" srcset=\"https:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/CC_06Jun_inflation_summary.png 857w, https:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/CC_06Jun_inflation_summary-300x104.png 300w, https:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/CC_06Jun_inflation_summary-768x266.png 768w, https:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/CC_06Jun_inflation_summary-810x281.png 810w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 857px) 100vw, 857px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The graphic is compelling (even though the box layout and connecting lines are bit confusing) but spending, in and of itself, cannot be the source of economy-wide inflation.<\/p>\n<p>Excellent examples of counter-arguments are found each and every Christmas when some fad takes root and the latest \u2018hot toy\u2019 emerges.\u00a0 To be concrete, no one could have foreseen the intense demand that the Nintendo Wii would command when it came out during the fall of 2006.\u00a0 Each Wii became such a hot commodity that stores sold out and large resell market developed.\u00a0 People who had the financial wherewithal to spend small fortunes threw cash around, thereby driving the price up in advance of Christmas day.\u00a0 And yet, the economy as a whole didn\u2019t suffer inflation.\u00a0 Other, more modern, examples of \u2018runaway prices\u2019 include the <a href=\"https:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/?p=833\">Game Stop stock bump<\/a> and the <a href=\"https:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/?p=862\">Dr. Seuss scare<\/a> where prices of those commodities rose sharply but, nonetheless, did not trigger economy-wide inflation.<\/p>\n<p>With that in hand, let\u2019s return to the Fox Business argument and unpack it a bit.\u00a0 If the graphic they provided seems to prove that government spending if the culprit but, as was just argued, spending itself can\u2019t be to blame, how can we square these two different points?\u00a0 The reconciliation lies in not what amount government spent or in what sectors of the economy that spending occurred but rather in how government acquired the money it spent.<\/p>\n<p>When a given individual, household, or firm spends it either takes from its savings or it borrows from someone else\u2019s in order to pay for what it wants or needs.\u00a0 Government has a third option: it can simply print more money.\u00a0 In exercising this third option, government typically triggers systemic, economy-wide inflation.\u00a0 The following excerpt from a talk given Milton Friedman drives this point home.<\/p>\n<p><center><div style=\"width: 480px;\" class=\"wp-video\"><!--[if lt IE 9]><script>document.createElement('video');<\/script><![endif]-->\n<video class=\"wp-video-shortcode\" id=\"video-973-1\" width=\"480\" height=\"360\" preload=\"metadata\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"video\/webm\" src=\"https:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/MiltonOnInflation.webm?_=1\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/MiltonOnInflation.webm\">https:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/MiltonOnInflation.webm<\/a><\/video><\/div><\/center><\/p>\n<p>During the course of the 15 months covered by the graphic above, the Federal Reserve expanded the money supply from approximately $15.5 trillion to $21.6 trillion, an increase of just about 40%.\u00a0 In the article entitled, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/business\/2022\/02\/06\/federal-reserve-inflation-money-supply\/\">Inflation has Fed critics pointing to spike in money supply<\/a><\/em>, author David J. Lynch does a nice job in making Friedman\u2019s case that inflation is monetary in origin.<\/p>\n<div class=\"myQuoteDiv\">Friedman, a Nobel Prize recipient, taught that \u201cinflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon,\u201d and said central bankers should prevent the supply of money from growing faster than economic output.<\/div>\n<p>To be fair, Lynch also covers the counter-argument that the Fed is currently mounting by noting that:<\/p>\n<div class=\"myQuoteDiv\">But a big chunk of that new money wasn\u2019t spent. Instead, the financial institutions that the Fed paid for those bonds parked more than $2 trillion in their accounts at the central bank while American households banked much of their stimulus checks and now sit on an estimated $2.7 trillion in savings.<\/div>\n<p>That\u2019s one reason that the Fed\u2019s money creation isn\u2019t driving inflation, according to many economists. Yes, there is a great deal more money stored in various forms. But it is moving through the economy more slowly than at almost any time in 65 years.<\/p>\n<p>But this \u2018velocity-of-money\u2019 justification for severing the link between money supply and inflation seems hard to reconcile with the Fed now pushing to raise the prime rate.\u00a0 Making money harder to borrow will result in an even lower velocity. \u00a0In addition, according to the article <em><a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/small-us-companies-lose-almost-143458099.html\">Small US Companies Lose Almost 300,000 Jobs Since February<\/a><\/em> by Alex Tansi of yahoo!finance, there is likely a significant cost to small business growth with this approach:<\/p>\n<div class=\"myQuoteDiv\">Firms with fewer than 50 employees have lost almost 300,000 jobs since February. \u2026 Some 91,000 of the losses came in May. a possible side effect of rising costs to borrow\u2026<\/div>\n<p>So why not just contract the money supply?\u00a0 There are several reasons.\u00a0 First and the most important one is that such a course of action almost invariably triggers a recession.\u00a0 Second, it isn\u2019t at all clear that all types of money are equal.\u00a0 Cash stuffed under the mattress is technically in the supply but is doing nothing to stimulate economic activity.\u00a0 So, how much should the Fed cut and where?\u00a0 These questions make it hard to find a precise procedure for taming inflation but it seems clear that statements like the one Lynch cites\u00a0 from Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell that assert that<\/p>\n<div class=\"myQuoteDiv\">\u2026the once-strong link between the money supply and inflation \u201cended about 40 years ago.\u201d Financial deregulation and innovations such as interest-bearing checking accounts and mutual funds meant that traditional measures of the money supply no longer provide reliable signals of future price trends.<\/div>\n<p>should be taken with a large grain of salt.\u00a0 These statements sound a lot like the expert assertions from the early 2000s that said we were in a new economy in years leading up to the Great Recession of 2008.<\/p>\n<p>Sadly, this is where the story stops.\u00a0 It looks like we\u2019re going to have to live with inflation for the foreseeable future and it looks like the \u2018economists in the know\u2019 are anything but knowledgeable.\u00a0 My own money is on the monetary-supply theory precisely because it following Occam\u2019s razor and it jibes with what we know are fundamental features of the economy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By all measures, June is the \u2018summer\u2019 month.\u00a0 By popular rendering, June is the first month of summer following hard on the heels of the common entry into that season... <a class=\"read-more-button\" href=\"https:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/?p=973\">Read more &gt;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-973","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/973","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=973"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/973\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1164,"href":"https:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/973\/revisions\/1164"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=973"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=973"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=973"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}