(Map source:\u00a0 Infant Formula Shortage in US: Where Is Baby Food Hardest to Find?<\/em><\/a>, Bloomberg)<\/p>\n The article provides a quantitative example of how changes in demand (or quantity demanded) has pushed the cost up by noting that a 12.4-ounce can Enfamil Gentlease, formula design for fussy or crying babies, is listed (at the time of the writing) on eBay for $55 ($45 + $10 shipping) compared to the normal grocery-store price of $19.<\/p>\n Several articles identify the groups hardest hit by the shortage.\u00a0 The Washington Examiner piece notes that the shortage is \u201cespecially acute for parents of babies who require specialty formulas to address allergies, as well as gastrointestinal or metabolic conditions\u201d, while the Everything You Need to Know About the Baby Formula Shortage<\/em><\/a>, by Yahoo, states that \u201cnot surprisingly, the most affected parents are those on the lowest income\u2026poorer women, infants and children, [who are on] WIC, which provides formula for a majority of [the] babies in low-income families.\u201d\u00a0 As a result of how the most vulnerable are being effected, most large retailers are rationing the supply to prevent hoarding.\u00a0 For example, Target has been limiting purchases to 4 cans while the Walgreens and CVS limits are 3.<\/p>\n Okay, so the shortage is real and painful.\u00a0 But then why is it happening.<\/p>\n The Washington Examiner article lists four reasons for the shortage:<\/p>\n Let\u2019s look at what the experts have to say on each of these fronts and judge and critique.<\/p>\n The pandemic \u2018officially\u2019 began in mid-spring of 2020 with the \u2018flatten the curve\u2019 edicts coming out in April of that year.\u00a0 Disposable goods, like toilet paper, were certainly in short supply initially and some segments of the public reacted by buying (i.e., hoarding) immense amounts.\u00a0 But by the fall of the 2020, manufacturers began to respond \u2013 after all their job is to make and sell products in order to make a profit \u2013 and the amounts of all goods returned to near-pre-pandemic levels.\u00a0 The Washington Examiner article even cites (in the discussion of another possible reason) \u201cThe supply of formula was relatively stable in the first half of 2021, but by July, the availability of formula on shelves began to dip, according to Datasembly.\u201d So while it is certainly the case that there is some hoarding happening now, it is unlikely that it is anything other than a public reaction to the recent-developing shortage that can be blamed on the pandemic.<\/p>\n There are two facts (noted above) that speak against this possibility.\u00a0 First, the change in a family attitude to a pregnancy or a recent birth is not something that \u2018changes on a dime\u2019.\u00a0 A time scale of years not months is what is needed to see large swings in demographic trends like the percentage of mothers who want to breastfeed.\u00a0 Second, as discussed above, the supply of baby formula was described as \u201crelatively stable\u201d in the first half of 2021.\u00a0 The only way that a decline in breastfeeding could have happened so quickly would have been a scenario like the following: suppose the CDC had said that breast milk was now poisonous due to COVID and breastfeeding was \u2018contraindicated\u2019.\u00a0 Under this, admittedly ridiculous claim, one could see large segments of breastfeeding mothers abandoning their regimen and starting a run on the stores.\u00a0 But there a scenario like this would have been public knowledge and mentioned in the article.<\/p>\n Until recently, the term \u2018supply chain\u2019 was known only to a few insiders who cared about manufacturing and production.\u00a0 It is now a buzz phrase akin to the \u2018devil made me do it\u2019.\u00a0 Nonetheless, there are some plausible and implausible reasons being laid at the feet of supply-chain woes.\u00a0 In the Washington Examiner article they do list a plausible scenario involving worker unavailability.\u00a0 Here we find the first of the four governmental failing that help explain the shortage.\u00a0 The government has incentivized workers leaving the workforce due to COVID by subsidizing people staying home.\u00a0 The workforce participation rate (graph from BLS) has yet to reach pre-pandemic levels<\/p>\n The article also seeks to blame the war in Ukraine for having a role in hampering imports but this is a unlikely effect as the regulations for importing baby formula are quite restrictive (more on this in a bit).\u00a0 So, overall, supply chain issues are likely having a small effect on the delivery of more baby formula.<\/p>\n Here we finally get to the root cause of the formula shortage and we will find ample evidence to lay three very big failings at the feet of government.\u00a0 The single biggest and by far the clearest cause of the baby formula shortage is the FDA\u2019s continued shutdown of the Abbott Nutrition\u2019s manufacturing plant in Sturgis, Michigan.\u00a0 The FDA stopped production in February after receiving complaints of infections due to Cronobacter sakazakii bacteria and possibly Salmonella<\/a>, in four babies from September 2021 to January 2022, according to the Washington Examiner article. \u00a0\u00a0According to the article The baby formula shortage is getting worse<\/em><\/a>, by CNN, a former employee filed a whistleblower complaint documenting his concerns for safety problems at the plant. According to the article:<\/p>\n \u2026<\/p>\n The Abbott spokesperson also said that products tested for Cronobacter sakazakii and Salmonella all came back negative, and that no Salmonella was found at the Sturgis facility during the investigation.\n<\/p><\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/BF_shortage_map.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n\n
Weak Production Market Unprepared for Pandemic Hoarding: unlikely<\/h1>\n
Decline in Breastfeeding: unlikely<\/h1>\n
Recent Supply Chain Problems: possibly but small impact<\/h1>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/commoncents.blogwyrm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/Workforce_Participiation.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nAbbott labs formula recall: root cause<\/h1>\n